ASPECT Research has presented an October issue of “Macro Finance: short term predictions” bulletin which covers the period till the end of 2009. In the bulletin monthly forecasts of macro indicators for October, November and December, and also annual forecasts of 2009 year are reflected. The report covers the given directions:

ASPECT Research has presented an October issue of “Macro Finance: short term predictions” bulletin which covers the period till the end of 2009. In the bulletin monthly forecasts of macro indicators for October, November and December, and also annual forecasts of 2009 year are reflected.

The report covers the given directions:

• Real Economic Growth Index forecasts;
• Gross national product forecasts;
• Forecasts of production of the goods and services in eight basic sectors of the Azerbaijan economy;
• Forecasts of Investment investments, Money incomes of the population and Price indexes;
• Forecasts of rates of five foreign exchanges most used in the country;
• Forecasts of various indicators of a money supply;
• Forecasts under interest rates and absolute values of deposits and credits;
• Indexes of the financial stability, allowing to evaluate level of risks in bank sector and in the country currency market;
• Tendencies and forecasts of change of the prices of the basic commodity and raw products in the world markets.

It is necessary to notice that for report preparation models of type ARIMA, which is a econometrics of time series are used. The bulletin consists of 40 indicators, the analysis of each of which is based on more than 100 monthly supervision.

The report can become the useful private companies and organizations, especially to participants of banking and financial sector, and as to official bodies and researchers.